[ Business Aviation ]October 13, 2020 7:00 am ET
By Victor Shalton
Honeywell: Business Jet Market to Recover to 2019 Levels by Second Half of 2021
Even as demand for business travel remains unknown for commercial airlines and corporate manufacturers and operators, short-term reductions in both deliveries and expenditures due to the pandemic are not expected to have a lasting impact on the business jet industry.
Honeywell’s Global Business Aviation is forecasting up to 7,300 new business jet deliveries worth $235 billion from 2021 to 2030, down 4% in deliveries compared to the same 10-year forecast a year ago.
The 2020 Honeywell Global Business Aviation also indicates that 80 percent of the business jet operator’s purchase plans have not been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with business jet deliveries in 2021 expected to be up 13% from a COVID-19 impacted 2020.
“Business jet usage is expected to rebound to 80% to 85% of 2019 levels in the 4th quarter of 2020 and fully rebound by the middle of 2021, indicating demand for business jet travel is returning after the global pandemic caused a slowdown in the industry earlier this year,” said Heath Patrick President of Americas Aftermarket at Honeywell Aerospace.
“The information we gleaned from operators shows a less than 1% decline in five-year purchase plans, so despite the short-term effects of the pandemic, we don’t expect long-term changes to purchase plans or to the overall health of the business jet market,” Patrick added.
Corporate planemakers are also closely watching to see if a summer rebound in corporate flights will last and generate demand for new aircraft.
Among the purchase plans of new business jets over the next five years, 30% are expected to occur in the next two years, representing a 5% drop from last year’s survey, due mainly to short-term uncertainty.
The long term-forecast through 2030 projects a 4% to 5% average annual growth rate of deliveries, in line with expected worldwide economic recovery.
The Middle East and Africa are reporting a higher purchase plan following a five-year low in 2019. The share of projected five-year global demand attributed to the Middle East and Africa is 4%, in line with the historical range of 4% to 6%.
Results from Honeywell’s closely-watched survey do not support the hypothesis that a decline in commercial travel has led to an increase in business jet purchases, said Shantanu Vaish, Honeywell Aerospace’s director of strategy and industry marketing, Reuters reports.
Plans to acquire used jets in the next five years have also dropped by about 6% from last year’s survey with 25% of used business jets trading hands over the next five years, compared to a five-year projection of 31% in 2019.